The Tambuwal Effect

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The emergence of Alhaji Aminu Waziri Tambuwal as speaker of the House of Representatives in 2011 upset the apple cart that had been ordained by his then party leaders in the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

Four years later and with Tambuwal about to leave office as speaker on May 29 for the Sokoto Government House, the consequence of his action is about to reawakened in the House of Representatives but this time without him being in the battle.

The position of speaker of the House of Representatives just as it was about four years ago was almost a no contest among the geopolitical zones. The office was simply primed for the Southwest and in the frontline for the battle then were two returning lawmakers, Murina Ajibola and Mulikat Akande. In the end none of the favoured two got the position despite the PDP’s endorsement of Akande. From the sidelines emerged Tambuwal who was swept to power on the popular enthusiasm of the majority of members who sought to create an independent bearing for the House.

Four years later, the indices of rebellion against the perceived inclination of party leaders to zone the office to the Southwest is again stirring signs of rebellion.

The outgoing minority leader of the House, Mr. Femi Gbajabiamila had been in pole position to emerge as speaker of the House under the new regime of the All Progressives Congress, APC. Remarkably, Gbajabimila’s quest had for weeks gone almost unchallenged in the Southwest and most of the country until the recent momentum of some rivals from outside the region.

The most conspicuous rival has been Mr. Yakubu Dogara, a two term lawmaker from Bauchi State who has captured the imagination of many party stalwarts and enthusiasts and is said to have gained the momentum among returning and new members of the House.
Also in the race is Tahir Moguno from Borno State and Pally Iriase from Edo State. The inclinations of on. Abdul-Mumini Jibrin from Kano State, a second term member had largely been mixed given insinuations that his bid was to help project his ascendancy in the next House.

Whatever, there is no doubt that the game is between Gbajabiamila and Dogara. While Gbajabiamila has been largely exposed to the nation as the articulate leader of the minority who fought the PDP to a standstill on issues in the House, not much has been projected about Dogara, who even though not well known to outsiders, has nevertheless inspired momentum from serving members of the House.

Dogara’s aspiration according to members has largely become a House project in the same way that Tambuwal was gravitated to the leadership upon the groundswell of popular support from members of the Fifth House of Representatives. What many say is going for him is the fact that he has emerged wholly clean from his service in sensitive positions such as chairman of the House committee on Customs and lately, the chairman of the House Services Committee, the epicentre of the welfare of members of the House.

The gist of his rejection of a $5 million dollar bribe from concerned interests while serving as chairman of the House Committee on Customs has become a selling point among his supporters.

While supporters of Dogara bask in their claim of having the majority of returning and new members on their side, they would however, be faced with the challenge of breaking party unity should they proceed with their plans to foist their man on the House irrespective of the party’s decision on zoning.

At a recent meeting with members-elect, the issue of what he would do should the party leaders ask him to step down was met with a classical Dogara response “When we get to the bridge we will cross it.”

That was vintage Tambuwal, whose supporters in the House are said to be at the heart of the campaign for the emergence of Dogara as speaker of the eight House of Representatives.

Gbajabiamila on his part is, however, not giving up. The minority leader has besides the strong support he is believed to have from a strong party leader from the Southwest is also enjoying the support of an influential returning member from Kano State.

The support from Asiwaju Tinubu is, however, like a double-edged sword. While it gives him the bloc vote from the Southwest, those envious or against Asiwaju’s dominance in the party are crying foul over the fact that Asiwaju produced the vice-president and could be in position to produce the Senate President and Speaker of the House, giving him strong leverage over the number two offices to the number four positions. It is a suggestion that some in the party hierarchy are strongly peeved against but given Tinubu’s capacity to overcome the odds, it is something that Gbajabiamila could count on to an advantage.

While Gbajabiamila is unquestionably seen as more visible in the APC, however, Dogara’s supporters believe that his entrenchment in the engine room of the Tambuwal leadership makes his election as speaker as an opportunity to continue the strides of the Tambuwal leadership.

The feeling is that while Tambuwal is set for his exit, the phenomenon he created through his rebellion of four years ago is a prospect still waiting to happen. How the leadership of the APC handles it could well define the relationship between the next ruling party and the incoming legislators.

It is thus not surprising that party leaders in meetings after meetings continue to ponder their steps.

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